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Abstract Systems with ultra-short-period (USP) planets tend to possess larger mutual inclinations compared to those with planets located farther from their host stars. This could be explained due to precession caused by stellar oblateness at early times when the host star was rapidly spinning. However, stellar oblateness reduces over time due to the decrease in the stellar rotation rate, and this may further shape the planetary mutual inclinations. In this work, we investigate in detail how the final mutual inclination varies under the effect of a decreasing J 2 . We find that different initial parameters (e.g., the magnitude of J 2 and planetary inclinations) will contribute to different final mutual inclinations, providing a constraint on the formation mechanisms of USP planets. In general, if the inner planets start in the same plane as the stellar equator (or coplanar while misaligned with the stellar spin axis), the mutual inclination decreases (or increases then decreases) over time due to the decay of the J 2 moment. This is because the inner orbit typically possesses less orbital angular momentum than the outer ones. However, if the outer planet is initially aligned with the stellar spin while the inner one is misaligned, the mutual inclination nearly stays the same. Overall, our results suggest that either USP planets formed early and acquired significant inclinations (e.g., ≳30° with its companion or ≳10° with its host star spin axis for Kepler-653 c) or they formed late (≳Gyr) when their host stars rotated slower. 

Abstract The warm Neptune GJ 3470b transits a nearby (d= 29 pc) bright slowly rotating M1.5-dwarf star. Using spectroscopic observations during two transits with the newly commissioned NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope at Kitt Peak Observatory, we model the classical Rossiter–McLaughlin effect, yielding a sky-projected obliquity of $\lambda ={98}_{-12}^{+15◦}$and a $v\sin i={0.85}_{-0.33}^{+0.27}\mathrm{km}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. Leveraging information about the rotation period and size of the host star, our analysis yields a true obliquity of $\psi ={95}_{-8}^{+9◦}$, revealing that GJ 3470b is on a polar orbit. Using radial velocities from HIRES, HARPS, and the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, we show that the data are compatible with a long-term radial velocity (RV) slope of $\dot{\gamma }=-0.0022\pm 0.0011\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}{\mathrm{day}}^{-1}$over a baseline of 12.9 yr. If the RV slope is due to acceleration from another companion in the system, we show that such a companion is capable of explaining the polar and mildly eccentric orbit of GJ 3470b using two different secular excitation models. The existence of an outer companion can be further constrained with additional RV observations, Gaia astrometry, and future high-contrast imaging observations. Lastly, we show that tidal heating from GJ 3470b’s mild eccentricity has most likely inflated the radius of GJ 3470b by a factor of ∼1.5–1.7, which could help account for its evaporating atmosphere.